Winter Storm Warning: A Deep Dive into the Northeast’s Snowy Outlook
The northeastern United States has already experienced a harsh winter, but the snowiest month of the year – February – is just beginning. Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reveals that February is historically the prime time for impactful snowstorms, particularly powerful nor’easters, in this region. This is due to a unique alignment of atmospheric conditions that are less common earlier in the season.
Why February is the Snowiest Month
Following Interstate 95 from Virginia to Maine, nearly every city along and east of this major roadway typically receives its highest snowfall totals in February. This year, many major cities along the I-95 corridor have already surpassed their average snowfall for the season, largely thanks to a historic and devastating January storm.
The key to another significant snowfall this month lies in a storm tracking along the right path up the East Coast. But what makes February so conducive to these blockbuster storms?
The Role of the Atlantic Ocean
The Atlantic Ocean plays a crucial role. Typically, sea surface temperatures along the Atlantic Coast are relatively warm at the start of winter, retaining heat from the summer and fall. This warmth often leads to rain rather than snow. However, this year, water temperatures have cooled down faster than usual, influenced by multiple Arctic air blasts early in the season.
As of this week, sea surface temperatures from northern New England to the Carolinas are a staggering 15 degrees Fahrenheit below normal, according to NOAA data. This exceptionally cold water, combined with the frequent incursions of frigid air, has created a favorable environment for a snowy February.
A Season to Remember?
This season is already outperforming recent winters for many locations. Data from the Southeast Regional Climate Center indicates that several Eastern Seaboard locales are experiencing one of their five coldest winters on record. While both the air and water temperatures remain cold, a storm is needed to fully capitalize on these conditions.
Two storms this winter have already demonstrated the potential: the destructive snow and ice storm that impacted the South and East Coast in late January, and the bomb cyclone that slammed the Southeast and Carolinas as February began.
Snowfall Totals So Far
- New York City: Over 21 inches (typically ~14 inches by this time)
- Philadelphia: Nearly 16 inches (typically ~10 inches)
- Washington, DC & Boston: Above-average snow totals
Looking Ahead: A Shift in the Pattern?
While the potential for another historic snowstorm remains, a major pattern change is expected to bring warmer temperatures to the Northeast in the coming days. The latest forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center suggest above-normal temperatures for much of mid-to-late February.
Although snow and ice are still possible even with milder temperatures, this forecast suggests that the season’s biggest snowstorms may have already occurred. Some forecast models hint at a possible coastal storm early next week, but its likelihood of materializing is currently low.
The Trend of Warming Winters
The past few winters in the Northeast have been unseasonably warm. Last winter ranked in the top third of warmest winters on record, despite periods of frigid cold. The 2023-2024 winter was the warmest on record for both the Northeast and the entire Lower 48, and the 2022-2023 season tied for the third-warmest. Climate.gov explains that winter is the fastest-warming season for nearly 75% of the US due to fossil fuel pollution.
New York City faced a snowfall deficit of over 3 feet in the previous two winters. While this season’s totals have finally exceeded the average, a substantial amount of snow is still needed to overcome the overall deficit – a similar story for cities throughout the region.
Stay informed about the latest weather updates and winter storm warnings from reliable sources like the National Weather Service.
