Super El Niño 2026: What You Need to Know

Get ready to hear a lot more about El Niño in the coming months – and potentially for years to come. This infamous climate cycle is returning, developing and intensifying in the Pacific Ocean near the equator. If it forms as predicted, this El Niño will dramatically reshape global weather patterns, bringing flooding to some regions and drought and wildfires to others, all while simultaneously accelerating the pace of global warming.

Is a ‘Super El Niño’ on the Horizon?

Increasing evidence suggests that an El Niño isn’t just imminent – expected to set in by late summer or early fall – but could be a particularly significant one. Some experts are even suggesting we could be facing a “Super El Niño,” an event with far-reaching and intensified impacts worldwide. These extremely intense El Niños are relatively rare, but the conditions are aligning.

Generally, an El Niño is declared when ocean temperatures in a specific region of the tropical Pacific exceed the long-term average by 0.5 degrees Celsius. A ‘Super El Niño’, however, occurs when temperatures are more than 2 degrees Celsius above average. Leading computer models, such as those from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), ECMWF are currently projecting such an outcome.

Understanding El Niño and La Niña

El Niño and La Niña – translating to “the Boy” and “the Girl” – are recurring climate cycles in the tropical Pacific Ocean that occur every few years. They have a profound impact on global weather patterns. El Niño can bring both flooding and drought to different parts of Africa, intensify winter storms on the U.S. West Coast, and contribute to more extreme heat globally.

El Niño is characterized by unusually warm waters in the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean, accompanied by shifts in wind and precipitation patterns. It’s a ‘coupled phenomenon,’ meaning both the ocean and atmosphere must respond in characteristic ways. The atmosphere reacts to warmer waters by shifting precipitation patterns closer to the warm ocean region. The trade winds, which typically blow from east to west near the equator, can weaken and even reverse direction, triggering a cascade of effects worldwide.

What’s Happening Now?

Currently, large volumes of unusually warm water are spreading beneath the ocean surface from the Western to the Eastern tropical Pacific. This water is slowly rising to the surface, a clear precursor to El Niño. Periodic westerly wind bursts – winds blowing from west to east – are helping to transport this warm water.

Why Should We Care?

While El Niño and La Niña are fascinating meteorological phenomena, their impact on extreme weather events is what truly matters. They can cause billions of dollars in damage, and a stronger El Niño would likely exacerbate these impacts. As Nat Johnson, a meteorologist at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, explains, predicting El Niño’s evolution “gives us an early heads up on changing risks for many weather-related phenomena, including floods, droughts, heatwaves, hurricanes and severe thunderstorms.” These impacts affect crop yields, disease spread, coral bleaching, fisheries, and many other aspects of our daily lives.

Uncertainty and Predictions

Despite the growing evidence, there’s still uncertainty surrounding the upcoming El Niño, particularly regarding its intensity. Spring forecasts tend to be less accurate than those made at other times of the year – a phenomenon known as the ‘spring prediction barrier’.

Regional Impacts

• United States: El Niño typically peaks during winter, potentially bringing a barrage of storms to California and the southern U.S., increasing flood risk. It can also weaken the Atlantic hurricane season by increasing wind shear.
• Global: El Niño often favors drought and heatwaves in Australia, raising wildfire risks. Northern South America (including parts of the Amazon rainforest), central and southern Africa, and India are also prone to drought.
• Flooding: Southeastern South America, the Horn of Africa, Iran, Afghanistan, and other parts of south-central Asia are more likely to experience flooding during El Niño.

El Niño and Global Warming

El Niño releases enormous amounts of heat stored in the oceans back into the atmosphere, boosting global average surface temperatures. A strong El Niño could make 2026 or 2027 the warmest year on record since instrumental data began in the 19th century. Think of climate change as ascending an escalator; an El Niño year is like jumping up and down while riding it – reaching new heights, albeit temporarily.

The last El Niño (not a Super El Niño) contributed to 2023 being the warmest year on record. The last Super El Niño occurred in 2015-2016, with others in 1997-98, and 1982-83. While ‘Super El Niño’ isn’t a formal NOAA designation, it’s used by forecasters and the media to describe a very strong event.

Meteorologists will be closely monitoring Pacific Ocean temperatures to determine the strength of the upcoming El Niño. If the European model proves accurate, it could be the strongest El Niño ever recorded.