Venezuela: A Quiet Transition and the Shadow of Democracy
The administration’s strategy in Venezuela appears to be yielding results, but the promise of a fully functioning democracy remains a distant prospect. In the immediate aftermath of Nicolás Maduro’s removal, critics of the President voiced concerns. The operation, bypassing Congressional approval, risked plunging the United States into another protracted foreign conflict – reminiscent of the counterinsurgency wars previously vowed to be avoided. Fears of a ‘Venezuela 2.0’ – mirroring the chaos and mass migration seen in Iraq – were widespread.
Three months later, a semblance of normalcy has returned to Venezuela, though ‘normal’ in a nation scarred by years of turmoil and economic hardship is a relative term. Residents of Caracas report a quieter city, with a reduction in arbitrary arrests. While economic conditions and government services haven’t dramatically improved, a cautious optimism prevails – the departure of Maduro offering a glimmer of hope for better days. Oil revenue is on the rise, and the interim authorities, led by Delcy Rodríguez, have implemented investor-friendly policies guided by their North American counterparts.
A Pragmatic Success?
By the metrics prioritized by the President – securing oil access and avoiding a prolonged, politically damaging conflict – the Venezuelan intervention can be considered a success. However, three months is a short timeframe for definitive conclusions, and numerous challenges remain. Currently, the aftermath of the January operation aligns closely with the initial blueprint.
Recent polling data supports this assessment. A survey by AtlasIntel and Bloomberg reveals that nearly 80% of Venezuelans believe their country is the same or better off post-Maduro. A significant 54% view increased U.S. influence positively, and 52% report an increase in civil liberties. These numbers would be the envy of many domestic political campaigns.
Echoes of Past Interventions
This relative success has emboldened the administration, leading to a more assertive approach on other global fronts. Less than two months after the Caracas operation, a large-scale military operation was launched against Iran, with considerably less favorable results. (During a recent address, the President highlighted the “congenial local partners” in Venezuela as a model for achieving desired outcomes in Tehran.) The administration has also begun to consider similar interventions in Havana, Cuba.
As Representative Seth Moulton of Massachusetts, a Democrat and Marine veteran, noted, “While some of our worst concerns didn’t come true, success on Trump’s terms doesn’t make it right. It establishes a new normal, which should terrify every American, as it will likely encourage further interventions.”
The Democratic Deficit
A critical caveat in Venezuela is the continued absence of genuine democratic rights. For years, proponents of regime change in Latin America, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, emphasized representative government as a core objective. Today, Venezuela remains governed by unelected leaders – different faces, proceeding cautiously, but still exhibiting authoritarian tendencies. Administration officials claim they are steering Venezuela towards elections by late 2027, cautiously introducing potentially destabilizing factors, such as the possible return of opposition leader María Corina Machado.
Whether this gradual approach can deliver lasting democracy and avoid the pitfalls experienced in Iraq, Libya, and Egypt remains to be seen. Phil Gunson, an International Crisis Group analyst with over 25 years of experience in Caracas, compares post-Maduro Venezuela to an unexploded bomb. “The chaos the Trump administration avoided on January 3 is still present,” he warns, highlighting the potential for renewed upheaval and armed conflict.
A Complex Legacy
The initial outrage surrounding Maduro’s removal stemmed not only from the act itself, justified as a law-enforcement operation related to drug-trafficking charges, but also from the administration’s handling of Congressional briefings, downplaying the potential for military intervention. The legality of pre-operation air strikes on suspected drug boats was also questioned.
The situation in Venezuela underscores the complexities of regime change, a strategy with a troubled history. While some Latin America experts support the administration’s focus on working with existing authorities and rebuilding the energy sector, they question the decision to disregard the results of the 2024 election and maintain the interim authorities in power. The lack of a clear timeline for political reforms and elections also undermines Venezuelans’ faith in a U.S. commitment to democracy.
Economic Realities and Future Prospects
The willingness of Maduro’s lieutenants, particularly Delcy Rodríguez, to collaborate with the U.S. government has been a key factor in the unfolding situation. This is particularly evident in the petroleum sector. Venezuela possesses the world’s largest proven oil reserves, but years of sanctions, corruption, and mismanagement have hindered production. Rodríguez, at Washington’s direction, has overseen the dismantling of nationalist policies implemented under Hugo Chávez.
The National Assembly has passed reforms to attract foreign investment, and deals have been announced with Italian and Spanish energy companies following U.S. Treasury Department approvals. American officials, including Energy Secretary Chris Wright, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, and General Francis Donovan, have visited Caracas, and the U.S. embassy has reopened.
While the administration aims for $100 billion in investment, experts predict a more modest increase in oil production – potentially 300,000 barrels per day in the next year or two. Removing Russian and Chinese companies, which currently control 22% of Venezuela’s oil production, will also be a challenge.
Ultimately, the success of the Venezuelan transition hinges on addressing the fundamental issues of political freedom and democratic governance. The path forward remains uncertain, but the stakes are high – not only for the Venezuelan people but for the future of U.S. foreign policy.
