The Toronto Blue Jays entered the 2025 season with World Series aspirations, fresh off a promising run. However, the early weeks have been a stark contrast to those hopes. While a three-game sweep of the Athletics offered a glimmer of optimism, a subsequent 3-9 stretch – including frustrating losses to the Colorado Rockies and a sweep at the hands of the Chicago White Sox – has cast a shadow over the team’s potential.
Currently, the Blue Jays find themselves with the second-worst run differential in MLB (-25), and their offensive output ranks 24th in the league at just 3.80 runs per game. A significant culprit? They’re fourth in the league in runners left on base (119), averaging 4.20 runners stranded in scoring position per game – a concerning 28th ranking. This suggests a team capable of getting runners on, but struggling to deliver the crucial hits when it matters most.
Bright Spots in a Slow Start
Despite the team’s struggles, several players are shining. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Daulton Varsho, and Kevin Gausman are all off to impressive starts, positioning themselves as potential contenders in the American League MVP race. But are they truly in the mix, and who else is being considered?
The Ben Rice Surprise
Recent MVP predictions from ESPN included a surprising name in the top 10: Ben Rice. While Rice enjoyed a solid sophomore season in 2024, with 26 home runs, 74 runs scored, and 65 RBIs, it’s debatable whether he’s currently performing at a level that warrants such consideration. As of April 12th, Rice is slashing .356/.500/.756 with four home runs, 14 runs, and 12 RBIs – undeniably hot. However, a key factor limits his potential: his platoon role.
Rice is primarily a strong-side hitter, frequently sitting or being replaced against left-handed pitching. Last season, he saw 411 plate appearances against righties but only 119 against lefties. This trend continues in 2025, with just 10 appearances against southpaws compared to 48 against right-handed pitchers. This restricted playing time will inevitably impact his overall production and, consequently, his MVP voting potential, creating an opportunity for players like those on the Blue Jays to rise in the rankings.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: The Face of the Franchise
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is no stranger to MVP conversations, and he’s making a strong case early in the season. He’s slashing .321/.446/.434, demonstrating his consistent hitting prowess. While the power numbers haven’t fully materialized yet (just one home run in 64 plate appearances), his offensive value is undeniable, ranking third in wRC+ (152). Guerrero Jr. has a history of slow starts – he didn’t hit his first home run until the 19th game last season – but still finished with 23. Expect the Blue Jays’ offense to improve, and with it, Guerrero Jr.’s MVP stock will soar.
Daulton Varsho: Health is Key
Daulton Varsho has been a reliable contributor throughout his seven-year MLB career, but his biggest challenge has been staying on the field. Injuries have sidelined him in the past two seasons, limiting his playing time. Despite appearing in only 71 games last season, he still managed to hit 20 home runs, score 43 runs, and drive in 55 RBIs. Varsho started the 2025 season slowly, but has recently found his stride, going 7-for-18 with two home runs, four runs scored, and five RBIs. If he can remain healthy and replicate his power swing from last year, he’ll undoubtedly be a strong contender for MVP votes.
Kevin Gausman: Ace on the Mound
The Blue Jays’ ace, Kevin Gausman, is off to a phenomenal start. In three starts, he’s thrown 17.1 innings, posting a 2.08 ERA and an incredible 26:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His four-seam fastball and split-finger pitches are proving devastating to opposing hitters, placing him in the 97th percentile in chase rate (40.8%). Even his expected ERA (1.75) is exceptional, ranking him in the 96th percentile. While a pitcher winning the MVP is rare (Shohei Ohtani being the notable exception), and the last non-two-way pitcher to win was Clayton Kershaw in 2014, a Kershaw-esque season from Gausman could certainly steal votes from Rice and propel him into the top 10.
The Blue Jays have a lot of baseball left to play, and the early season struggles don’t define their potential. With Guerrero Jr., Varsho, and Gausman leading the charge, they have the talent to turn things around and contend for a playoff spot. And with a little luck, one of these players could very well find themselves in the thick of the AL MVP race.
