Unpacking Week 12 Chaos: Our Bold CFP Projections for the New AP Top 25

Week 12 in college football was nothing short of a rollercoaster, delivering colossal clashes, heart-stopping comebacks, and outcomes that will undoubtedly send ripples through the NCAA football rankings. As AP Top 25 poll voters grapple with tough decisions, the landscape for the College Football Playoff (CFP) contenders has shifted significantly. Our mission? To cut through the noise and offer our most insightful CFP projections for the upcoming AP Top 25 poll.

The chaotic nature of the weekend leaves pollsters with a monumental task. How do you weigh head-to-head results against strength of schedule? What’s the true value of a narrow escape versus a dominant victory? These are the questions that define the intense debate around college football playoffs at this critical juncture of the season.

The Head-to-Head Headache: Oklahoma’s Ascent and Alabama’s Dilemma

Perhaps the biggest shake-up came from Oklahoma’s impressive road victory over Alabama. Both teams now stand at 8-2, but the Sooners’ triumph in Tuscaloosa creates a fascinating dilemma for voters. While Oklahoma clearly holds the head-to-head edge, Alabama’s earlier win against a top-five Georgia team adds a layer of complexity. Furthermore, Oklahoma’s loss to Texas—a team that just suffered a double-digit defeat in Athens—complicates their resume.

It’s vital to remember that head-to-head results, while important, aren’t the sole determinant at this stage of the season. A full slate of games allows for a more comprehensive understanding of a team’s strengths and weaknesses. However, the recency bias of Oklahoma’s statement win is likely to sway voters. We project the Sooners to leapfrog Texas, becoming the highest-ranked two-loss team within the Top 10 of the AP Top 25 poll, significantly boosting their CFP projections.

Near-Misses and Resilient Runs: Upsets Averted

Week 12 was also defined by the upsets that almost happened. Several ranked teams stared down deficits in tricky spots, only to stage heroic comebacks:

• Texas A&M orchestrated its largest comeback ever against South Carolina, preserving its unbeaten record.
• Georgia Tech roared back from a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit to defeat Boston College.
• USC scored the final 19 points of their game to clinch a five-point victory over Iowa.

Had any of these results flipped, the rankings would have been dramatically different. Instead, these teams will likely hold close to their previous positions, showcasing their resilience even if the scares don’t necessarily improve their college football playoff standing.

Filling the Void: The Battle for the Bottom Half

One of the toughest decisions for AP voters will be filling out the 20-25 spots. With No. 19, No. 22, No. 23, and No. 25 all suffering losses, there’s a significant void. While it’s easy to remove losing teams, finding appropriate replacements requires careful consideration. Our CFP projections anticipate an influx of strong Group of Five squads, with several three-loss power conference teams also making a late surge for Top 25 consideration.

Our Projected AP Top 25 After Week 12

Here’s how we believe the new AP Top 25 will unfold, shaping the future of CFP projections:

1. Ohio State (Last week —1): Handled business at home, maintaining their dominant 10-0 record.
2. Indiana (2): A slow start turned into a convincing 31-7 victory, validating their current high ranking.
3. Texas A&M (3): Displayed championship resilience with their comeback, avoiding a costly loss.
4. Georgia (5): Looked like a true CFP contender, dominating their heavyweight battle and putting their early loss to Alabama firmly in the rearview.
5. Ole Miss (6): Avoided disaster with a strong second half, securing a 34-24 win.
6. Oregon (7): A sharp offensive performance in a 42-13 win, though a big jump in the polls is harder to predict.
7. Texas Tech (8): An impressive encore performance, shutting down UCF’s offense in a 48-9 rout.
8. Oklahoma (11): Huge road win against Alabama earns them the title of ‘best two-loss team’ and a significant bump in CFP projections.
9. Alabama (4): The home loss to Oklahoma will see them drop, likely a step below the Sooners.
10. Notre Dame (9): Extended their winning streak to eight games with a comfortable win, solidifying their Top 10 status.
11. BYU (12): Dominant win over TCU boosts their standing and Big 12 title hopes.
12. Texas (10): Despite three losses, strong wins and a ‘limited penalty’ for losing at Georgia keep them highly ranked.
13. Vanderbilt (13): Bye week, no change.
14. Georgia Tech (14): Needed a comeback, but their one-loss record keeps them ahead of two-loss teams.
15. Utah (15): Efficient offense led to a comfortable 55-28 victory.
16. Miami (16): A strong performance with a pick-six and three TD passes, but earlier losses temper their climb.
17. USC (17): An impressive second-half rally secured a 26-21 win and sets up a crucial game next week.
18. Michigan (18): Escaped with a win despite five turnovers; unlikely to move much in the polls.
19. Virginia (20): Key road win in the ACC title race, solidifying their Top 25 spot.
20. Tennessee (21): Dominant 42-9 win, even if not ‘crisp’ by their own admission.
21. James Madison (24): A dominant 58-10 win will garner more attention from voters.
22. Tulane (NR): Took care of business, likely cracking the Top 25 with an 8-2 record.
23. Missouri (NR): Held serve at home, a strong resume and win over a conference opponent warrants a Top 25 return.
24. North Texas (NR): Pounded UAB, their 9-1 record and lopsided win will catch voters’ eyes.
25. Navy (NR): A quality win over South Florida brings the 8-2 Midshipmen back onto the radar.

Teams projected to drop out: No. 19 Louisville, No. 22 Cincinnati, No. 23 Pittsburgh, No. 25 South Florida.

What’s Next for the College Football Playoff Race?

With only a few weeks left in the regular season, every game holds immense weight for CFP projections. The fluidity of the rankings, especially among two and three-loss teams, promises an exciting conclusion. Keep an eye on key matchups in the coming weeks as teams jockey for position, hoping to impress the College Football Playoff Selection Committee and secure a coveted spot in the final four. The road to the championship is far from clear!