The Price of a Mistake: Analyzing the Worst NHL Contracts
In the high-stakes world of the NHL, the salary cap is more than just a number—it’s a strategic puzzle. Every dollar spent must translate into on-ice production. When a team overpays, they aren’t just losing money; they are losing the flexibility to improve their roster, creating what many call a “cap anchor.”
But how do we define a “bad” deal? It isn’t just about the total dollar amount. To truly identify the NHL worst contracts, we must look at the surplus value: the difference between what a player is paid and their actual empirical value based on Net Rating, age curves, and projected future performance.
Based on recent data and projected value, here are the top 10 most problematic contracts in professional hockey today.
1. Jonathan Huberdeau (Calgary Flames)
- Contract: $10.5M x 5 years
- Surplus Value: -$30M
For the third consecutive season, Huberdeau holds the title for the league’s most disappointing deal. While $10.5 million is top-line money, Huberdeau’s production in Calgary has plummeted, scoring at a mere 41-point pace last season. At 33, the decline is worrying, and it’s hard to see him ever justifying this price tag again.
2. Chandler Stephenson (Seattle Kraken)
- Contract: $6.3M x 5 years
- Surplus Value: -$26M
Stephenson looks productive on the scoresheet, but the analytics tell a different story. Seattle is paying for a second-line center but getting something closer to a fourth-liner in terms of impact. With one of the worst defensive impacts in the league, his role as a primary matchup defender is simply not working.
3. Adin Hill (Vegas Golden Knights)
- Contract: $6.3M x 5 years
- Surplus Value: -$25M
Goalies are notoriously volatile, and Hill is a prime example. After a stellar Cup run, his performance has swung wildly. Paying $6.3 million for a goaltender who has fluctuated between elite and replacement-level is a massive gamble that currently looks like a loss for Vegas.
4. Leo Carlsson (Anaheim Ducks)
- Contract: $18M x 5 years
- Surplus Value: -$25M
This is a case of paying for potential. While Carlsson is talented, $18 million is reserved for the absolute best players in the world. Until he becomes a legitimate superstar, this contract severely limits Anaheim’s ceiling by eating a massive chunk of their cap space.
5. Jacob Trouba (San Jose Sharks)
- Contract: $8.3M x 4 years
- Surplus Value: -$21M
Trouba brings grit and leadership, but the numbers don’t support an $8 million price tag. He is a No. 4 or 5 defenseman being paid like a No. 2. Unless a change of scenery sparks a return to his 2021-22 form, the Sharks are overpaying for “intangibles.”
6. Trent Frederic (Edmonton Oilers)
- Contract: $3.9M x 7 years
- Surplus Value: -$22M
The lesson here? Never give long-term deals to depth players. Frederic has fallen into fourth-line territory, yet he’s earning nearly $4 million. In a cap-constrained environment, this is a significant inefficiency for the Oilers.
7. Jake Walman (Edmonton Oilers)
- Contract: $7M x 7 years
- Surplus Value: -$23M
Walman is the definition of inconsistent. While he showed flashes of brilliance, his overall trajectory has dipped. The Oilers bought high on a player who has yet to prove he can maintain a No. 3 defenseman’s level of play over a full season.
8. Brett Kulak (Colorado Avalanche)
- Contract: $4.5M x 5 years
- Surplus Value: -$18M
Kulak’s decline was sudden and sharp. While Colorado is usually savvy with their roster, Kulak’s negative impact on expected goals (xG) suggests that his days as a high-end option are likely over.
9. Alex Tuch (Washington Capitals)
- Contract: $10.5M x 8 years
- Surplus Value: -$24M
Tuch is a fantastic player, but the term is the problem. $10.5 million is steep for a power forward as he enters his 30s. While the first few years may be acceptable, the back end of this deal could become a nightmare as the age curve hits.
10. Elias Pettersson (Vancouver Canucks)
- Contract: $11.6M x 6 years
- Surplus Value: -$20M
Once a top-tier talent, Pettersson’s recent decline has been dramatic. While he has the skill to bounce back, the risk associated with an $11.6 million cap hit is immense. For now, he is a high-priced asset in need of a reset.
Final Thoughts: The Danger of Overpayment
When analyzing the worst NHL contracts, it’s clear that the biggest risks come from overestimating a player’s ceiling or ignoring the inevitable age decline. For teams to succeed in the NHL, they must balance star power with cap efficiency.
For more detailed stats on player salaries and cap hits, check out PuckPedia to see how your favorite team is managing its budget.
