NFL Free Agency: A Blueprint for the Buffalo Bills
The NFL Combine has concluded, and teams are now strategically positioning themselves for the offseason. For the Buffalo Bills, with a new defensive scheme and several key needs, this promises to be a pivotal period. The question is: what moves can they make to maximize cap space and build a team capable of challenging for the Super Bowl in 2026?
As part of our annual tradition, we’ll project the Bills’ approach over the next two months, encompassing veteran cuts, contract restructures, free-agency signings, trades, and draft selections. We’ll also track cap space to ensure feasibility. The Bills currently have $7.22 million in cap space. The NFL has set the 2026 salary cap at $301.2 million. A recent restructure of right tackle Spencer Brown’s contract has already yielded over $10 million in additional cap space.
Navigating the Cap Landscape
The cap space calculation accounts for Larry Ogunjobi’s deal voiding on March 10th, and the corresponding contract adjustments to the Top 51. It’s important to remember that the offseason salary cap utilizes the team’s top 51 cap hits, impacting how new contracts affect available cap room. For instance, signing a player with a $1 million cap hit effectively adds $200,000 to the current cap after subtracting the 51st-highest cap hit (estimated at $800,000).
All contract information is sourced from Over the Cap.
Potential Contract Adjustments & Cuts
Players like Knox and Johnson are valuable long-term assets, but their current contracts present challenges. Knox is owed $12 million in new money, a figure difficult to justify given his role. Johnson’s role may be evolving, and he’s owed $8.76 million. To retain both, pay cuts could be necessary. We project Knox accepting a $3.5 million reduction with incentive opportunities, and Johnson a $2.5 million decrease, also with incentives. Given that Johnson’s deal isn’t guaranteed in 2026, the Bills could guarantee it and potentially release him after the season, similar to the approach taken with Matt Milano.
Strategic Restructures & Releases
Contract restructures are crucial for creating short-term cap relief by converting base salaries and roster bonuses into prorated signing bonuses. These should be reserved for players in the Bills’ long-term plans.
Moving on from Samuel would yield a net savings of $5.17 million, a straightforward transaction given his limited impact over the past two seasons. Cutting Rapp would free up an additional $2.19 million, allowing the Bills to pursue a fresh start at safety.
Free Agency Targets & Potential Trades
With a new defensive scheme, the Bills should prioritize versatile defenders. Bringing back Trubisky on a manageable two-year, $10 million deal ($5.3 million guaranteed) provides a reliable backup quarterback with an easy out in 2027.
Addressing the wide receiver position is paramount. The Bills actively sought a receiver during the 2025 season, and that need remains. Trading for an established receiver, potentially a No. 1 option like DJ Moore, makes sense. Moore’s speed and separation skills would complement the existing receiving corps. A trade involving a mid-round pick could be sufficient, given Moore’s age (entering his age-29 season) and recent performance.
Trade Details:
- Buffalo Receives: WR DJ Moore
- Chicago Receives: No. 91 pick, 2027 6th round pick
Restructuring Moore’s contract to a $7.86 million cap hit for 2026 would be feasible.
Defensive Reinforcements
Leo Chenal, a versatile linebacker, could be a key free-agency addition. His ability to cover, blitz, and play multiple linebacker positions aligns with the Bills’ desire for positionless players. A three-year, $24 million deal with $17.22 million guaranteed is projected.
Adding Risner at left guard on a two-year, $14 million pact ($9 million guaranteed) would provide stability to the offensive line. Blankenship, a safety, could pair with Cole Bishop on a three-year, $21 million deal ($13 million guaranteed). Tonga, a nose tackle, could be acquired on a two-year, $8.5 million contract. Awuzie, a veteran cornerback, could provide insurance on a fully guaranteed $1.5 million one-year deal.
Draft Strategy
The Bills’ draft picks, after these moves, include Nos. 26, 60, 126*, 166*, 221*, and 229* (*estimated due to compensatory picks). Focusing on edge rushers, nickel corners, and inside linebackers will be crucial.
Final Touches & Long-Term Planning
Post-draft signings will focus on adding depth and special teams contributors. Prioritizing a long-term contract extension for O’Cyrus Torrence is paramount. A four-year, $65 million deal with $40 million guaranteed would secure a key piece of the offensive line.
Joe Buscaglia is a staff writer for The Athletic, covering the Buffalo Bills.
