MLB Baseball: Where Does Framber Valdez Fit Best?
As the MLB offseason progresses, Framber Valdez stands out as one of the last remaining top-tier free-agent pitchers. While his market has developed slower than anticipated – potentially due to his age, accumulated innings, the qualifying offer, and a past interaction with his catcher – interest is now expected to intensify with other prominent arms like Dylan Cease, Ranger Suárez, and Michael King already off the board. Valdez possesses the ability to bolster any team seeking a frontline starter, and he’s frequently linked to the Orioles, Giants, Mets, and Cubs in recent reports.
But where would Valdez have the most significant impact? Unlike high-strikeout pitchers, Valdez excels at inducing ground balls and relies heavily on strong defensive support. This makes his environment critically important. Let’s analyze key factors to determine the optimal destination for this valuable asset.
Defense: A Ground Ball Machine’s Best Friend
Valdez is a ground-ball specialist. Since 2021, his 62% ground-ball rate ranks fourth among qualified pitchers. He also leads MLB in double plays generated over the same period. To maximize his effectiveness, a team needs a robust infield defense.
Currently, the Cubs boast the strongest infield defense among Valdez’s potential suitors, thanks to the exceptional fielding skills of Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, Matt Shaw, and the recent addition of Alex Bregman. According to Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Outs Above Average (OAA), the Cubs have a clear advantage in capitalizing on Valdez’s ground-ball tendencies. Their infield combined for +11 OAA last season (12th in MLB) and a +66 DRS mark (2nd in MLB). The Mets (-3 OAA) and Giants (+39 DRS) trail behind in these metrics.
The “Neighborhood”: Facing Left-Handed Hitters
While Valdez doesn’t exhibit extreme platoon splits, he generally performs better against left-handed batters (17.6% K-BB%, .223 opponent batting average) than right-handed hitters (14.1 K-BB%, .230 opponent BA). The concentration of left-handed hitters within a division significantly impacts a pitcher’s workload.
Last season, the AL East featured the highest number of left-handed plate appearances (13,006), nearly double that of the AL West (7,524). The Orioles faced the most left-handed batters (2,819 plate appearances) among Valdez’s suitors, followed by the Giants (2,740) and Mets (2,734). The Cubs (2,473) saw fewer left-handed hitters. This means Orioles pitchers were 14% more likely to face a lefty than a Cubs pitcher last season. The AL East is expected to remain a left-handed-heavy division.
Ballpark Factors: A Unique Advantage in Baltimore
The ballparks of the contending teams generally offer favorable pitching environments. The Cubs and Giants are tied for 26th in Baseball Savant’s three-year rolling ballpark factors. Citi Field and Camden Yards have also been relatively pitcher-friendly in recent years.
Camden Yards presents a particularly interesting case. While recent fence adjustments have made it more hitter-friendly, it still exhibits a significant performance split favoring left-handed batters. Over the past three years, Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the widest disparity between favorability for lefties (7th-best) and righties (23rd). When considering only right-handed batters – whom Valdez will face more frequently – Wrigley Field and T-Mobile Park are the most suppressive to offensive performance.
Rotation Needs: Filling the Gaps
Assessing the quality of each team’s current rotation is crucial. According to FanGraphs.com’s depth charts projections (as of January 15th):
- Mets: 11.8 (17th)
- Orioles: 11.5 (18th)
- Cubs: 11.2 (19th)
- Giants: 10.4 (24th)
The Giants have the most pressing need, with only Robbie Ray currently projected as a lefty in their rotation. While they’ve added Tyler Mahle, another top-level arm would be beneficial. The Mets have internal growth potential with prospects like Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong, and hope for more innings from Sean Manaea. The Cubs added Edward Cabrera, but Valdez would still be a valuable addition. The Orioles acquired Shane Baz, but he’s unproven, and they lack a pitcher who reached 3 fWAR last season.
The Verdict: Valdez Fits Best in Baltimore
While each team would benefit from Valdez’s durability and quality, his unique skillset aligns perfectly with the Orioles’ needs. Their challenging division, favorable ballpark split, and the need for a proven top-of-rotation arm make Baltimore the ideal destination for Framber Valdez. The Orioles have demonstrated a commitment to improvement this offseason with additions like Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward, but bolstering their rotation is crucial to compete with the division’s powerhouses.
Stay up-to-date with the latest MLB news by signing up for our daily Morning Lineup!
