Rafael Tobias vs. Diyar Nurgozhay: UFC 326 Prediction & Betting Odds

Rafael Tobias vs. Diyar Nurgozhay: A UFC 326 Early Prelims Breakdown

The UFC 326 Early Prelims are set to ignite with a compelling Light Heavyweight contest between rising star Rafael Tobias and veteran Diyar Nurgozhay. This bout promises action, and we’re here to provide a comprehensive preview, including betting odds and a fight prediction.

Fighter Profiles

Rafael Tobias (14-1) is a force to be reckoned with, boasting an impressive record of 14 wins and only one loss, with a remarkable 11 finishes. He recently earned his UFC contract through a dominant submission victory on Dana White’s Contender Series, showcasing his skills on a major platform. Tobias trains at the renowned Chute Boxe Monstro, a gym steeped in MMA history, having produced fighters like Charles Oliveira.

Diyar Nurgozhay (10-2), at 28 years old, brings experience to the cage, but his UFC journey has been challenging with a 0-2 record. Despite a solid overall record of 10 wins and 2 losses, Nurgozhay is looking to secure his first victory within the UFC octagon.

Betting Odds & Analysis

As of March 7, 2026, DraftKings Sportsbook lists Tobias as the clear favorite at -180, while Nurgozhay is the +150 underdog. The over/under for total rounds is set at 1.5, with the under priced at -120 and the over at -110.

Interestingly, both fighters share the same standing reach of 74 inches and stand at 6’2”. This suggests a potentially closely contested striking battle. However, Tobias’s explosive style and aggressive approach give him a significant edge. His recent performances, all ending in decisive finishes, highlight his ability to close the show.

The Prediction: Tobias by Finish

While Nurgozhay’s experience is a factor, Tobias’s momentum and finishing prowess are too compelling to ignore. We’re leaning towards Tobias to secure a finish within the fight. The best bet is on Tobias to win by knockout or submission at -115.

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All odds and lines are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.

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