AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Round 3 – Bhatia Leads as Weather Looms
Mother Nature played a significant role in the third round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Players teeing off early benefited from calmer conditions, avoiding the sustained winds that reached 23 mph with stronger gusts along the coastline. This created a stark contrast in playing conditions throughout the day.
Bhatia Holds a Slim Lead
Akshay Bhatia (+185) capitalized on the favorable morning conditions, carding six birdies through his first seven holes to reach 2-under through nine. Despite a tougher back nine, he finished with a 4-under round and takes a two-shot lead into Sunday.
Morikawa Charges with a Stunning Round
Collin Morikawa (+490) delivered a spectacular performance in the calmer morning conditions, shooting a 10-under 62 while impressively hitting all 18 greens in regulation. This is only the third time in his PGA TOUR career he’s achieved this feat. Morikawa now sits just two shots back and is well-positioned to secure his first victory since the 2023 ZOZO Championship.
Sunday’s Forecast: A Test of Resilience
Round 4 will be heavily influenced by the weather. The PGA TOUR has adjusted tee times, with players going off in threesomes from both tees to anticipate worsening conditions. Forecasts predict winds between 6 and 12 mph with a 25% chance of rain early in the day, increasing to 35% probability of precipitation and winds between 10 and 20 mph with gusts nearing 30 mph by noon. These conditions are expected to intensify as the afternoon progresses.
Weather’s Impact on Pebble Beach
Pebble Beach has played slightly under par this week, but the incoming wind could dramatically change that. The course could trend closer to even par or even over par for the late wave. Analyzing round scoring markets, if similar numbers (68.5-69.5) are offered for Sunday’s afternoon groups, there’s potential value in betting on overs. A shift towards a field average of 71 would create a significant margin.
Statistical Insights: Who Thrives in the Wind?
Two key statistical areas stand out for Sunday: performance in extreme wind conditions and performance in cooler temperatures.
Strokes Gained: Total (Extreme Wind – Last 36 Rounds)
- 1. Scottie Scheffler
- 2. Rory McIlroy
- 3. Shane Lowry
- 4. Corey Conners
- 5. Collin Morikawa
- 6. Wyndham Clark
Strokes Gained: Total (Temperature 44-57 degrees – Last 36 Rounds)
- 1. Scottie Scheffler
- 2. Rory McIlroy
- 3. Nick Taylor
- 4. Shane Lowry
- 5. Daniel Berger
- 6. Ludvig Åberg
Shane Lowry: A Strong Contender
Shane Lowry’s profile aligns well with the expected conditions. He finished runner-up at Pebble Beach last season and is currently 11 under, one shot outside the top 10. His game is well-suited for rounds demanding lower apex and more control around the greens. Lowry ranks third in Strokes Gained: Total in the last 36 rounds played in extreme wind (+1.63 strokes per round). He posted a 5-under 67 in Round 3, gaining +1.16 strokes on approach and +0.68 strokes putting.
Morikawa’s Potential
While Bhatia leads, Morikawa’s performance in windy conditions is noteworthy. Bhatia ranks outside the top 40 in windy conditions, while Morikawa ranks fifth, gaining +1.42 strokes per round. Morikawa has excelled in ball-striking this week, but has struggled with putting. If he can remain near neutral on the greens, his approach play could propel him to victory.
Henley as a Dark Horse
Henley ranks inside the top 20 in Strokes Gained: Total in windy conditions and is within striking distance of the top 10. While his execution has been inconsistent, he’s still gained strokes overall and with the putter.
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