NCAA Basketball: Early Round Upset Potential in the 2026 Women’s Tournament
There’s nothing quite like the excitement of March Madness in NCAA Basketball. While everyone loves seeing their favourite team advance, an early-round upset can quickly change the landscape of your bracket. If you’re not tied to a specific team, you might even be hoping for a few surprises! The 2026 Women’s NCAA Tournament kicks off on Friday, March 20th, and while a 1-seed falling to a 16-seed is unlikely, several top seeds could face early exits. Here’s a look at some potential first and second-round upsets to keep your eye on.
Potential First Round Shocks
Virginia Tech vs. Oregon
A No. 9 seed upsetting a No. 8 isn’t earth-shattering, but this matchup promises to be a thrilling contest, potentially sending Oregon home early. Virginia Tech, led by juniors Carleigh Wenzel and Carys Baker, finished the regular season strong, with Wenzel exploding for 29 points against Virginia. Oregon faced a tougher schedule, battling teams like Michigan, Ohio State, and Maryland. Did that prepare them for the intensity of March? Only time will tell, but stopping Wenzel and Baker will be crucial. Virginia Tech also appears to have a slight defensive edge, making this a game you won’t want to miss – it could go either way.
Baylor in Danger?
Nebraska and Richmond will clash in the First Four, but either team has the potential to knock off Baylor in the First Round. Baylor’s season has been inconsistent; they started with a win against Duke but struggled against other ranked opponents. Both Nebraska and Richmond boast superior shooting percentages to Baylor. Baylor faltered in the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinal against Colorado, shooting just 31% from the floor and battling turnover issues (averaging 16.6 per game). Richmond’s three-point prowess (seventh nationally in attempts per game) could be particularly problematic, while Nebraska features Britt Prince, averaging 17.4 points on 53.4% shooting. This rematch has all the ingredients for a classic.
Second Round Upsets to Watch
Tennessee to Challenge NC State?
NC State narrowly defeated Tennessee earlier in the season, and the Lady Vols will be looking for revenge. Both teams had seasons that didn’t quite live up to expectations, but the talent is undeniable. NC State’s Zoe Brooks and Khalil Pierre, alongside Tennessee’s Talaysia Cooper and Janiah Baker, are stars to watch. Tennessee will need a strong performance from its key players to pull off the upset, fueled by the memory of that earlier loss.
Ole Miss to Stun Minnesota?
Despite a loss to Texas, Ole Miss is entering the tournament with confidence after defeating Vanderbilt twice. They’ll likely dispatch Gonzaga in the first round, but the second-round matchup against Minnesota on the Golden Gophers’ home court will be a true test. Cotie McMahon, averaging 19.9 points, will need to be dominant for Ole Miss, especially considering they are 14-4 when she scores 20+. Minnesota, however, is a dangerous three-point shooting team, led by Grace Grocholski (42.3% from beyond the arc). Ole Miss will need to contain their outside shooting to advance.
Notre Dame vs. Ohio State: A Star-Studded Clash
This second-round matchup could be one of the best of the tournament, a battle between Notre Dame’s Hannah Hidalgo (25.2 PPG) and Ohio State’s Jaloni Cambridge (22.8 PPG). Both players are offensive forces and defensive stalwarts – Hidalgo leads the nation in steals! Ohio State also boasts defensive prowess with Jaloni’s sister, Kennedy Cambridge. Playing at home gives Ohio State an advantage, but Notre Dame is playing its best basketball, having defeated Louisville and narrowly losing to Duke. Hidalgo will need to shine for Notre Dame to advance.
Kentucky to Upset West Virginia?
This game, played in Morgantown, will be a challenge for both teams. West Virginia earned a Top 16 seed with a Big 12 Tournament title, but Kentucky has the potential to pull off the upset. Clara Strack, Kentucky’s dominant post player (17.1 PPG, 10 RPG, 2.6 BPG), will be key. However, West Virginia’s elite defense (allowing just 58.1 PPG) will be a tough obstacle. Fortunately, Kentucky also has Tonie Morgan and Teonni Key to contribute. This matchup is definitely worth watching, and Kentucky has a real chance to send West Virginia packing.
Don’t forget to finalize your bracket before the deadline!
