Ilia Malinin’s Olympic Shock: A Lesson in Figure Skating’s Brutal Math
Ilia Malinin entered the Olympic free skate as the overwhelming favourite. However, early mistakes triggered a meltdown that laid bare the brutal realities of modern figure skating scoring. What made Malinin’s Olympic defeat so shocking wasn’t just his years-long dominance; it was how completely the competition had tilted in his favour before he even stepped onto the ice.
The Reigning Champion’s Unexpected Fall
For nearly three years, Malinin had been men’s skating’s guiding light: unbeaten since late 2023, a back-to-back world champion, and the skater who redefined the sport’s technical ceiling. He arrived at the Milano Ice Skating Arena with a commanding lead after the short program, boasting the most difficult planned program in the field. Under normal circumstances, this combination should have been decisive.
Adding to his advantage, contenders faltered one by one. Italy’s Daniel Grassl fell out of podium contention, France’s Adam Siao Him Fa lost ground, and several skaters struggled with clean technical execution. (Some athletes have even privately questioned the ice quality.) By the time Malinin took the stage, the event seemed to be his to lose.
The Unraveling of a Program
What followed was difficult to process. Finishing eighth overall after leading by five points, the official result only tells part of the story. The collapse stemmed from the loss of base value, missed combination opportunities, and the cascading technical penalties that occur when a skater is forced to improvise a meticulously planned program.
This wasn’t just an Olympic upset; it was a case study in how modern figure skating scoring works at its most unforgiving – and why even the most technically gifted skater isn’t immune. Once the axel was missed, Malinin was forced to chase points instead of controlling the program. A planned quad loop became a double, costing roughly 10 points. A fall on a quad lutz-single euler-triple flip combination, normally a high-scoring element, barely cleared three points after deductions. A quad salchow-triple axel sequence turned into a double salchow and another fall, wiping out even more scoring potential.
The Importance of Program Structure
Even with some successful elements, the structural damage to the program’s base value was done. By the final third of his skate, Malinin wasn’t performing the program designed to win gold; he was trying to mitigate damage. In modern figure skating, you can’t salvage your way to an Olympic title.
Malinin’s technical score of 76.61 points paled in comparison to the surprise winner, Ilia Shaidorov’s 114.68. At the Olympic level, this isn’t just a large margin; it’s the difference between skating with control and skating for survival. Multiple skaters achieved technical scores over 100, while Malinin didn’t come close.
Shaidorov’s Winning Formula
Shaidorov, the unexpected champion, executed a formula that has quietly won Olympic titles for years: several extremely difficult jumps, including five quads (two in combination), clean landings, positive execution scores, and crucially, no falls or major deductions. He preserved his jump layout, maintaining combination opportunities and bonus scoring.
To casual viewers, Shaidorov’s approach might have seemed less spectacular. But under Olympic pressure, it proved brutally effective. The competition shifted from who could do the most difficult things to who could protect the value of their planned elements.
The Psychological Pressure of the Olympics
Malinin admitted the Olympic atmosphere felt different, becoming overwhelmed with thoughts and memories, losing awareness of his position in the program. The margin for error that his extreme difficulty usually provided disappeared under the immense psychological pressure. One mistake led to another, and the entire structure crumbled.
Malinin, controversially left off the 2022 US Olympic team, seemed to realize the unique pressure of his first Olympic Games. He was overheard saying he wouldn’t have skated the same way had he been sent to Beijing.
Lessons Learned and the Future of Figure Skating
This isn’t an isolated incident. Nathan Chen experienced a similar collapse at the 2018 Games before winning a world title and Olympic gold four years later. While Malinin understands this arc, the next opportunity isn’t until 2030.
Malinin remains the sport’s technical revolutionary, but Milan may reshape how he – and the sport – approaches championships. He forced rivals to chase maximum difficulty, but Friday was a reminder that clean programs still win. Four or five quads can beat seven, and execution trumps theoretical difficulty under pressure.
The Olympics reward skaters who preserve structure rather than push boundaries. Malinin may continue to set the sport’s limits, but the Olympics are decided by those who can stay within them. Read more at NBC Olympics.
