ESPN TC: 8 Upsets to Watch in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament

There’s nothing – not even the champion cutting down the nets on the first Monday night of April – that defines the Men’s NCAA basketball Tournament quite like an upset. The 68-team event is designed to give smaller schools and conferences a chance to compete against college basketball’s biggest names on the brightest stage. While many games are blowouts, others produce the unforgettable moments that make March Madness so captivating.

Over the next three weeks, Cinderella stories will unfold and unlikely heroes will emerge. Millions filling out brackets are trying to identify those underdogs and predict which seemingly outmatched teams will topple their favored opponents. To help with that task, here’s a look at eight of the most likely upsets for the 2026 NCAA Tournament. We’ve excluded 7-versus-10 and 8-versus-9 matchups, as the seed-line difference in those games is often minimal.

1. Louisville vs. South Florida

This matchup is a trendy pick for a reason. Louisville and South Florida employ similar up-tempo, 3-point-heavy offenses. While Louisville has more talent, several factors favor the Bulls. Lingering questions surround Louisville freshman star Mikel Brown Jr., who has battled back issues this season, and his tournament status is uncertain. The Cardinals are 16-5 with Brown, but only 7-5 without him. Even if he plays, he’s unlikely to be at 100%. Louisville’s underwhelming frontcourt may also struggle against South Florida’s 6-10 forward Izaiyah Nelson, the American Conference Player of the Year (15.7 points, 9.6 rebounds per game).

The Bulls are one of the hottest teams in the country, riding an 11-game win streak into the tournament, and that momentum could continue.

2. North Carolina vs. VCU

North Carolina is dealing with an injury to standout freshman forward Caleb Wilson, who is out for the season after thumb surgery. Since Wilson’s injury, the Tar Heels are 5-4 after a 19-4 start. While they’ve had some impressive wins, they’ll face a formidable challenge from VCU, which has won 16 of its past 17 games.

3. BYU vs. Texas

BYU still has its transformative freshman, A.J. Dybantsa, but is missing standout guard Richie Saunders, who is out for the season. The Cougars are 5-5 since Saunders’ injury and were slipping even before his ACL tear. Texas, a power-conference team that underachieved in the regular season, could get hot in March. The Longhorns have a star in guard Dailyn Swain and a coach, Sean Miller, with tournament experience. (This upset requires Texas winning a play-in game against NC State.) While Dybantsa is talented, BYU is a vulnerable top-six seed.

4. Alabama vs. Hofstra

This upset pick gained traction after Alabama’s No. 2 scorer, Aden Holloway, was arrested and charged with felony drug offenses. Holloway has been removed from campus and won’t be with the team. Alabama shoots 3s at a high rate, making them explosive but prone to upsets on off shooting nights. Hofstra has two road wins against power-conference opponents (Pitt and Syracuse) and boasts one of the country’s top scorers, guard Cruz Davis (20.2 points per game). They are also strong defensively inside the arc, potentially neutralizing Alabama’s offense.

5. Texas Tech vs. Akron

Texas Tech was a Final Four pick but lost All-American forward JT Toppin to a torn ACL. Since then, they are 3-4 and have more injury concerns with star guard Christian Anderson. Akron is appearing in its fourth NCAA tournament in five years and has one of the best scorers in the country, guard Tavari Johnson (20.1 points per game). If Akron can control the tempo, they could pull off the upset.

6. Tennessee vs. SMU

This is a matchup-dependent prediction. SMU has one of the nation’s best backcourts, combining for 49.5 points per game, and could challenge Tennessee in a high-scoring affair. Tennessee sometimes struggles to score consistently.

7. Nebraska vs. Troy

Nebraska, a power-conference team, has never won an NCAA tournament game, but this year’s squad went 26-6 in the regular season. They stumbled down the stretch, going 6-6 in their final 12 games, and could face issues against Troy, which has a road win against San Diego State. Troy holds opponents to 31.3% on 3-pointers, a potential problem for Nebraska’s offense.

8. Wisconsin vs. High Point

Wisconsin is 15-5 since January 6th and has a strong guard tandem. However, High Point is a formidable opponent with a roster reportedly worth over $4 million. They are 30-4 and have won their past 14 games. Wisconsin has lost as a No. 5 seed to mid-majors in the past.

Source: ESPN