Auburn Basketball Fans Debate: Is Miami Tournament-Worthy?
In the history of the NCAA Tournament – dating back to 1985 – only seven teams have started a season with an unblemished record of 28 wins. Those teams – 1990-91 UNLV, 2004-05 Illinois, 2013-14 Wichita State, 2014-15 Kentucky, and both 2016-17 and 2020-21 Gonzaga – all earned coveted No. 1 seeds. This year, Miami University’s Redhawks joined this exclusive club, achieving a remarkable 31-1 record (28-1 against Division I opponents). However, unlike their predecessors, Miami isn’t expected to receive a top seed, and some question whether they deserve a tournament bid at all.
Miami’s perfect run ended abruptly with an 87-83 loss to UMass in the Mid-American Conference Tournament quarterfinals. This defeat ignited a fierce debate across the sports landscape, a discussion that will likely continue until Selection Sunday. The Redhawks’ record is undeniably impressive, but a closer look reveals underlying concerns.
The Schedule Strength Question
One of the biggest criticisms leveled against Miami is the strength of their schedule. Ranked 269th nationally, it’s significantly less challenging than those faced by most tournament contenders. While this isn’t entirely Miami’s fault, as highlighted by Extra Points, the fact that they didn’t play a single Quad-I opponent is a major factor for the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to consider.
Predictive metrics, which are gaining increasing importance, paint a less flattering picture. KenPom, T-Rank, and BPI rank Miami 90th, 85th, and 90th, respectively, averaging 88.3. This contrasts sharply with their resume rankings of 21st, 40th, and 50th, averaging 37.0. The extreme disparity between these rankings is unprecedented.
Wins Above Bubble and the Committee’s Approach
However, there’s a glimmer of hope for the Redhawks. NCAA Vice President of Basketball Dan Gavitt recently indicated that the “Wins Above Bubble” metric will be prioritized, especially when determining which teams make the field. Miami currently boasts a respectable Wins Above Bubble ranking of 33, comparable to power conference bubble teams like NC State (43) and Auburn (44).
This has led to a polarized debate. Some argue that Miami’s record is too good to ignore, while others believe their weak schedule disqualifies them. There’s little middle ground, with passionate arguments on both sides.
A Potential Solution: The First Four
A potential compromise could be to include Miami in the tournament as a First Four participant. This would acknowledge their impressive record while giving them an opportunity to prove themselves against a tougher opponent. In an era where Cinderella stories are becoming increasingly rare due to the transfer portal and NIL, excluding a 31-1 team would send a discouraging message.
The situation surrounding Miami is unique, reflecting the evolving landscape of college basketball. Balancing fairness with the preservation of the tournament’s spirit will be a significant challenge for the Selection Committee. The debate surrounding Miami’s inclusion is a microcosm of the larger conversation about how to evaluate teams in this new era of college basketball.
