The Ultimate Heisman Watch: Week 12’s Top Contenders & Shifting Odds in College Football

The race for college football’s most coveted individual award, the Heisman Trophy, is heating up as we enter Week 12. What began as a broad field of hopefuls has now sharpened into a thrilling four-man contest, dominated by elite quarterbacks who delivered show-stopping performances last weekend. While there are still crucial regular-season games and conference championship showdowns ahead, the frontrunners have firmly established themselves, setting the stage for an unforgettable finish.

This week, the Heisman Watch zeroes in on the top contenders: Fernando Mendoza, Julian Sayin, Ty Simpson, and Marcel Reed. These signal-callers are not just leading their teams; they’re making their case for individual glory with every snap. Odds, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, reflect the dramatic shifts in this high-stakes competition. Let’s break down where each player stands.

Fernando Mendoza: The New Favorite After a Heisman Moment

Fernando Mendoza has officially seized the spotlight, emerging as the new favorite in the Heisman race. His Week 11 performance against Penn State was nothing short of a Heisman moment. In a nail-biting encounter, Mendoza orchestrated a spectacular game-winning drive for No. 2 Indiana, punctuated by highlight-reel plays that will be replayed for years.

The go-ahead touchdown strike to Omar Cooper Jr. was a testament to Mendoza’s clutch ability and vision. Cooper’s incredible catch, one of the best of the year, secured a victory that saw the Hoosiers march nearly the entire length of the field to erase a late deficit.

Critics might point to an earlier interception or Indiana’s struggles against a 3-6 Penn State team, but winning on the road in the Big Ten is never easy. Mendoza gutted out the victory, keeping Indiana’s perfect season intact. This resilience, combined with his raw talent, impressive statistics, and now a signature moment, has solidified his position as the player to beat. FanDuel now lists Mendoza as the outright favorite, a testament to his growing stature as an eventual first-round pick.

The Long Shots & Defensive Dynamo: Can They Break Through?

Trinidad Chambliss: A Statistical Marvel Facing an Uphill Battle

Despite an outstanding statistical outing last week, Trinidad Chambliss saw his Heisman odds plummet from +4000 to +10000. How does a quarterback complete 29 of 33 passes for 333 yards and three touchdowns and lose ground? The answer lies in his strength of schedule: he played against The Citadel.

Chambliss has been excellent since becoming the starter in mid-September, but his resume lacks marquee wins. With his final three SEC opponents potentially missing bowl eligibility, and a recent victory over an FCS team, he faces an immense challenge. While his counterparts battle in ranked matchups with conference title and College Football Playoff implications, Chambliss’s big numbers against weaker opponents simply aren’t moving the needle for voters. No. 7 Ole Miss is already in the CFP discussion, but individual accolades require more than just stats against inferior competition.

Jacob Rodriguez: The Defensive Star Eyeing History

A defensive player winning the Heisman Trophy is a rare feat, with over a quarter-century passing since the last non-offensive winner. However, Jacob Rodriguez, the dynamic linebacker for No. 6 Texas Tech, is making a compelling case to at least earn a trip to New York. He could become the fourth defensive player in the last decade to be invited to the ceremony if voters take note of his incredible achievements.

Rodriguez is on pace for his second consecutive 100-tackle season and double-digit tackles for loss. But his true impact shines in his ability to create turnovers. The fifth-year senior leads the nation with seven forced fumbles and has already notched a career-best three interceptions. Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire passionately advocated for Rodriguez after their win over No. 12 BYU:

"The Heisman is given to the best football player," McGuire asserted. "It’s not given to the best quarterback. They have awards for that. You can’t say that Jacob Rodriguez, at his position, is not playing at that level, at an elite level, as good as anybody in the country."

High-Stakes Showdowns: Heisman & CFP Implications Collide

Week 12 features several top-25 matchups that carry significant weight for both the Heisman Trophy and the College Football Playoff picture. For players like Ty Simpson, Gunner Stockton, and Jeremiyah Love, these games are doubly critical as they strive for strong individual finishes and team success.

• Ty Simpson’s Test Against Oklahoma’s Defense

  How will Brent Venables’ Oklahoma defense challenge Simpson? Oklahoma is renowned for its intricate defensive schemes designed to confuse quarterbacks. If Simpson navigates this test successfully, No. 4 Alabama will be one win away from a guaranteed spot in the SEC title game, and their quarterback will have conquered one of the toughest matchups on their schedule.

• Gunner Stockton in the SEC Elimination Game

  No. 5 Georgia’s clash with Texas is effectively an SEC championship elimination game. The added Heisman data point that comes with league title games is immensely influential. Stockton must secure a win to keep the potential of a 13th game alive. He’s been red-hot with 10 total touchdowns in his last three outings, but the Longhorns’ defense is a far tougher challenge than those he’s recently torched.

• Jeremiyah Love: Notre Dame’s Offensive Weapon

  No. 9 Notre Dame cannot afford a third loss if they hope to reach the CFP. This week, they face their toughest remaining opponent. If there was ever a time for the Fighting Irish to lean on their best offensive weapon, it is now. Love’s 16 scrimmage touchdowns lead the country, and he will likely need to add to that tally to keep pace with a scorching hot Pittsburgh offense.

What to Watch For in the Final Weeks

The coming weeks will be a crucible for these Heisman contenders. With conference championships looming and CFP berths on the line, every performance will be scrutinized. Can Mendoza solidify his lead, or will one of the other elite quarterbacks stage a late surge? Will a defensive player like Rodriguez defy history?

The beauty of the NCAA Football season lies in its unpredictable nature. Stay tuned as we witness the dramatic conclusion of the 2024 Heisman Trophy race!