Pete Crow-Armstrong: From MVP Hopeful to Baseball’s Biggest Bust?
The Chicago Cubs handed Pete Crow-Armstrong a hefty $115 million contract, but the investment hasn’t paid off. The young outfielder, once a leading MVP candidate, is currently mired in what many are calling the worst slump in baseball. What went wrong, and can he rediscover the form that made him a star?
A Stunning Decline
During the first half of the 2025 season, Crow-Armstrong, 24, showcased a powerful left-handed swing and elite defensive skills, appearing to be Chicago’s next two-way sensation. However, the narrative drastically shifted. Since August 2nd of last season, spanning 67 games, his performance has plummeted to a dismal .195/.243/.290 slash line.
The advanced metrics paint an even grimmer picture. His wRC+ of 47 is the worst in baseball among qualified hitters, significantly trailing even the next lowest, Jordan Beck of the Rockies (55). His .270 xwOBA ranks 145th, while his actual wOBA (.234) is dead last in the league. These numbers suggest this isn’t just a slump, but a fundamental issue.
Digging into the Numbers
Crow-Armstrong’s approach at the plate appears to be the core of his struggles. His walk rate has dropped to a concerning 4.4%, well below the league average of around 9%. According to Fangraphs, he’s been worth -15.9 runs above average – the worst mark in baseball. This is a stark contrast to his explosive start to 2025.
From Opening Day through August 1st, 2025, Crow-Armstrong was a force, hitting .273/.309/.560 with 27 home runs, 31 doubles, 78 RBIs, and 29 stolen bases. His 137 wRC+ and 5.4 fWAR placed him among baseball’s elite, all while providing exceptional defense in center field. Then, the bottom fell out.
The final 50 games of 2025 saw him slash .185/.236/.289, with a wRC+ of just 44. This collapse hasn’t shown any signs of abating, despite a recent couple of multi-hit games.
The Problem: Swing Decisions and Breaking Balls
While a mechanical flaw in his swing might be a factor, the numbers suggest a deeper issue. Crow-Armstrong has always been an aggressive hitter, but that aggression has become excessive. He’s chasing pitches outside the strike zone at an alarming rate – 49.2% this season, placing him in the first percentile league-wide, compared to a league average of around 30%.
Conversely, he’s becoming less aggressive on pitches *within* the strike zone. He swung at 80.4% of pitches in the zone in 2025, but that number has dropped to 70.9% this season. This combination of chasing bad pitches and missing good ones has led to a significant increase in his strikeout rate, from 23.1% to 30.1%.
His struggles against breaking pitches are particularly concerning. His slugging percentage against curveballs has plummeted from .716 in 2025 to .286 this season, with his whiff rate soaring from 21.5% to 38.5%. Similar struggles are evident against sliders.
Is This the Real Pete Crow-Armstrong?
The question now is whether the Cubs overpaid for a fleeting glimpse of potential. His rookie numbers from 2024 (.237/.286/.384, 86 wRC+) are far more indicative of his current performance than the heights he reached in the first half of 2025. Perhaps that stellar stretch was an anomaly.
At 24, Crow-Armstrong still has time to turn things around. If he can refine his approach and improve his plate discipline, a fix is theoretically possible. However, there’s a real possibility that Chicago invested in a player whose best performance was a mirage.
The Cubs’ $115 million investment and strong vote of confidence haven’t yielded the expected results. The future of Pete Crow-Armstrong in Chicago hangs in the balance.
Source: Sports Illustrated
