Mets vs. Dodgers Predictions: Backing the Underdog with Nolan McLean

Mets vs. Dodgers Predictions: Why New York Can Pull Off the Upset

Our Mets vs. Dodgers predictions lean towards New York, with rookie sensation Nolan McLean taking the mound. This Tuesday, April 14th matchup in Chavez Ravine features a compelling pitching duel between McLean and Los Angeles’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Despite being the underdog, there’s strong reasoning to support a Mets victory and a low-scoring game.

Nolan McLean: A Rising Star

It’s surprising to see the Mets priced at +186 with Nolan McLean on the hill. The 24-year-old has demonstrated impressive poise and skill in his 11 Major League starts, boasting a solid 2.23 ERA. His advanced metrics are even more encouraging, ranking above the 90th percentile in key areas like expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA), and average exit velocity. This suggests his success isn’t just luck; McLean possesses genuine, elite-level stuff.

Yamamoto Still Finding His Footing

While Yoshinobu Yamamoto is a highly touted pitcher, he hasn’t quite reached “elite mode” yet. Through three starts, his xERA sits at a pedestrian 3.62, and his strikeout rate is a relatively modest 20.9%. The Mets, despite a slow start at the plate, have a lineup capable of generating runs against Yamamoto, particularly if he doesn’t command the strike zone consistently.

The Under is the Smart Play

Monday saw a surge of high-scoring games across MLB, but the Mets-Dodgers opener bucked the trend with a 4-0 victory for Los Angeles. Tuesday’s forecast mirrors the conditions of the opener: cooler temperatures (high 50s to low 60s) which typically suppress offensive output. With two excellent starting pitchers on the mound, and both bullpens sporting SIERAs under 3.80 and well-rested, the Under appears to be the most prudent wager.

Betting Trends to Consider

The Mets have cashed the moneyline in three of their last five road games, providing a 15% return on investment.
Both McLean and Yamamoto are capable of limiting opposing offenses.
Cooler temperatures favor pitching and lower scores.

For more in-depth MLB betting trends, check out Covers’ MLB betting section.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.

Disclaimer: Not intended for use in Massachusetts (MA).

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About the Author

JD is a seasoned sports bettor and content creator with five years of experience covering college football and MLB. His analytical approach, combined with a deep understanding of statistics, allows him to identify profitable betting opportunities.

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