Doomsday: The Avengers vs. Dune – A Box Office Showdown
The biggest fantasy hero battle in Hollywood is shaping up over a release date: December 18th. For months, Warner Bros.’ and Legendary’s Dune: Part Three and Disney and Marvel’s Avengers: Doomsday have officially shared the same release date. This week’s unveiling of the Dune movie’s poster publicly declaring the December 18th date has solidified the impending showdown.
This means that, at a time when theaters are eager to fill seats, two of the year’s most anticipated films – arguably the most anticipated – are set to debut on the exact same day. Theater owners, starved for blockbusters, are questioning if this wealth of content could be better distributed over time. “That’s a level of overwhelm that doesn’t make sense,” one representative lamented, especially considering the recent struggles of the theatrical industry. “An Avengers movie and Dune 3 are both sure things.”
A Different Kind of Blockbuster Battle
Unlike the surprisingly harmonious “Barbenheimer” phenomenon of July 2023, where Barbie and Oppenheimer appealed to distinct audiences, these two epic franchise sequels share a significant overlap in their target demographics. Dune: Part Two (2024) skewed heavily male (68% of opening weekend attendees were male), with a substantial portion of the audience over the age of 25. Conversely, Avengers: Endgame (2019) had a gender split of 60% male and 40% female, primarily attracting Millennials and Gen Z.
The concern isn’t solely about potentially reduced ticket sales due to competition. While dedicated fans will likely see both films, others may be forced to choose between a theatrical experience and waiting for streaming access. Furthermore, the release date is already crowded with other major films, including Robert Eggers’ Werewolf, Jumanji 3, The Angry Birds Movie 3, and Jonathan Levine’s untitled John Tuggle pic. Awards contenders will also be vying for screen space. “It will be especially bad for specialty distributors because everybody’s going to free up every screen they have for those two films,” an exhibitor noted.
The Imax Factor
For both Dune and Avengers, the battle for Premium Large Format (PLF) screens, particularly Imax, is a significant issue. Dune has secured Imax exclusivity for three weeks, a strategic move given director Denis Villeneuve’s commitment to visual spectacle and the film’s partial filming with Imax cameras. However, some observers believe Disney is missing out by not having Imax screens available for Doomsday. “Doomsday not getting the PLF is insane,” one exhibitor stated. “It’s free money.” The two films will share the non-Imax PLF screens.
Despite the Imax exclusivity, Disney and Marvel remain firm in their December 18th release date. While Imax and PLF screens are in high demand, there are still plenty of regular screens available. As the success of Barbie demonstrated (despite not receiving the Imax treatment), a film can achieve massive success even without it. “There will be plenty of regular auditoriums left over for both films once the rest of the premium large-format screens are divided up,” another exhibitor explained. “For us, it’s a win-win. We’ll have two huge movies throughout the two weeks of the Christmas holiday.”
The Holiday Advantage & Spoiler Concerns
The week before Christmas is a prime moviegoing period, with audiences generally having more free time to see multiple films. In pre-pandemic times, six to ten movies could thrive during the holidays, and while the overall number of releases has decreased, the potential for success remains. Adding to the urgency is the fear of spoilers. Marvel fans are known for rushing to see new releases to avoid online spoilers, while the Dune franchise has remained faithful to its source material, but the teaser trailer suggests Part Three will take more liberties, potentially offering unexpected twists.
Dune initially claimed the December 18th date in 2024. The next Avengers movie, originally titled The Kang Dynasty, was initially slated for May 2025 but was delayed twice due to creative changes, including the involvement of the Russo Bros. and a shift away from Jonathan Majors’ Kang. Marvel even launched a countdown clock leading to the December 18th date.
Both films are expected to be major box office draws, with the Avengers brand anticipated to outperform, despite recent fluctuations in Marvel’s success. (Dune: Part Two grossed $750 million, while Avengers: Endgame earned $2.8 billion.) The level of theatrical drought – for both exhibitors and studios – makes the Avengers vs. Dune face-off feel somewhat wasteful.
During a January event, Doomsday star Robert Downey Jr. joked with Timothée Chalamet about the rivalry: “We both have films opening on Dec 18, and we decided to coin it — we’re thinking ‘Dunesday.’ We’ll see if we’re still friends by then.”
Read more at The Hollywood Reporter
