NFL Free Agency Frenzy: Winners, Losers, and the Quarterback Carousel
The quarterback game of musical chairs was always going to be a messy affair. There were simply more teams searching for a signal-caller than there were truly competent quarterbacks available. And just days into free agency, several franchises are left wondering what their next move will be.
The Quarterback Carousel
The Miami Dolphins, in a surprising move, navigated a record-breaking dead salary cap hit from Tua Tagovailoa to sign Malik Willis, who quickly became the most sought-after option. Willis secured a $67.5 million contract over three years despite having only six NFL starts under his belt – a testament to the desperation in the quarterback market. At least the Dolphins landed someone.
Meanwhile, the Arizona Cardinals find themselves without a quarterback, and the Cleveland Browns seem inclined to rely on Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders, or perhaps even revisit the possibility of Deshaun Watson. The New York Jets acquired Geno Smith via trade, a player previously booed out of Las Vegas during his tenure with the Raiders. The Pittsburgh Steelers are cautiously optimistic about a potential return from Aaron Rodgers, who will be 43 next season, but are wary of repeating last year’s prolonged waiting game.
The Atlanta Falcons and Minnesota Vikings addressed their quarterback needs, potentially as backups or replacements for their young starters. The Falcons brought in Tua Tagovailoa, while the Vikings signed Kyler Murray. The Dolphins opted to absorb a $99 million dead cap hit rather than continue with Tagovailoa, and the Cardinals followed suit with a $54.7 million hit on Murray. In a relative sense, the Falcons and Vikings emerged as winners, acquiring players their previous teams were eager to offload.
It’s a challenging landscape. Kirk Cousins will likely serve as a bridge for one of these teams, but that doesn’t inspire much excitement. The Colts’ reluctance to let go of Daniel Jones speaks volumes. We can anticipate some precarious quarterback situations when the NFL season kicks off, and that’s before accounting for inevitable injuries.
Looking Ahead to the Draft
Many teams, particularly the Cardinals, Jets, and Browns, are subtly positioning themselves for the 2027 NFL Draft. While this year’s draft lacks exciting quarterback prospects outside of Fernando Mendoza, next year is expected to offer a wealth of first-round-caliber signal-callers. This strategy is viable, but it means enduring a potentially difficult year.
Free Agency Winners and Losers
Running Backs: A Solid Offseason
It’s been a relatively positive offseason for running backs. Players like Kenneth Walker III and Travis Etienne Jr., while not elite, received substantial contracts. Etienne secured a four-year, $52 million deal with the Saints, and Walker landed a three-year, $43 million contract with the Chiefs. Several other backs, including Kenneth Gainwell, Rico Dowdle, and Tyler Allgeier, signed two-year deals worth over $6 million per season. Even David Montgomery’s trade to the Houston Texans proved beneficial for the Lions, netting them valuable draft picks.
Klint Kubiak and Robert Saleh: Benefiting from Spending
The Titans and Raiders emerged as the biggest spenders in the early days of free agency, committing $294.5 million and $281.6 million, respectively, according to Spotrac. This influx of capital will undoubtedly benefit new head coaches Klint Kubiak and Robert Saleh, providing them with improved rosters and a better chance for success. Kubiak will also be adding Fernando Mendoza with the first pick of the draft. Saleh, in particular, has seen his defense undergo a significant overhaul with 13 additions.
Los Angeles Rams: Super Bowl Contenders?
Rams general manager Les Snead had a comparatively easy offseason. With a strong roster and no impending free agency concerns, he focused on addressing the team’s only glaring weakness: cornerback. Snead traded the 29th overall pick, along with additional draft capital, to the Chiefs for Trent McDuffie, one of the league’s top cornerbacks. He then added Jaylen Watson via free agency. The Rams are now firmly in Super Bowl contention.
George Pickens: A Franchise Tag Frustration
George Pickens should arguably be valued higher than Alec Pierce. Despite this, Pickens received the franchise tag while Pierce secured a lucrative four-year deal potentially worth up to $116 million. The franchise tag, while providing a one-year salary of $27.3 million, pales in comparison to Pierce’s contract. This situation underscores the need for the players’ union to address the limitations of the franchise tag.
Quiet Teams: A Potential Strategy?
The Broncos, Eagles, Seahawks, and Jaguars remained relatively quiet in the initial wave of free agency. However, this inactivity might be a strategic move. These teams, all recent successes – including a Super Bowl champion and division winners – may be content with their existing rosters and wary of overpaying in free agency.
J.J. McCarthy: A Diminishing Future in Minnesota?
After just 10 starts, J.J. McCarthy’s future with the Minnesota Vikings appears uncertain. The Vikings’ swift pursuit of Kyler Murray, immediately after his release from the Cardinals, signals a lack of confidence in McCarthy. While McCarthy still has potential, his struggles and injury history raise concerns about his long-term viability as a starter.
