Sam Girard: Navigating the Avalanche’s Defensive Future

The Colorado Avalanche face a crucial decision regarding the future of defenseman Sam Girard. While there’s currently no immediate pressure to move him – the team is on pace to challenge the NHL’s single-season points record – the approaching end of his contract necessitates a proactive approach. The trade of Mikko Rantanen to Carolina underscores a key reality: no player, aside from Landeskog, MacKinnon, and Makar, is entirely untouchable. Heartbreak is an inherent part of the NHL business, and a strategic decision regarding Girard’s future is inevitable.

Assessing Potential Free Agent Replacements

If the Avalanche opt to explore options to fill the Girard-sized hole in their lineup, several viable free agents could be acquired at a reasonable price. Many players discussed as potential trade targets will also be available in free agency on July 1st, though some may sign contracts before then. Here’s a look at some intriguing possibilities:

Juuso Valimäki – A Potential Depth Option

Age ’25-26: 27 | WAR ’25-26: 44% | On-Ice xG Diff: 2.3 | Experience: 129 GP (AHL), 277 GP (NHL) | Last Contract AAV: $1,750,000 | Next Contract Expectations: 2 x $1,500,000

Valimäki hasn’t seen NHL action this season, and his future in North America is uncertain. However, he could be a serviceable, cost-effective depth defenseman for the Avs, benefiting from a stable team environment that allows him to regain his footing.

Ian Cole – A Familiar Face

Age ’25-26: 36 | WAR ’25-26: 35% | On-Ice xG Diff: -12 | Experience: 109 GP (AHL), 965 GP (NHL) | Last Contract AAV: $2,800,000 | Next Contract Expectations: 1 x $1,500,000

A familiar name for Avalanche fans, Ian Cole could return on a bargain one-year deal. He’d likely serve as a seventh defenseman, providing experience, grit, and a positive locker room presence. The Avs’ staff already knows how to utilize his skillset effectively.

Grizz – A Cost-Effective Alternative

Age ’25-26: 32 | WAR ’25-26: 20% | On-Ice xG Diff: -6.4 | Experience: 84 GP (AHL), 584 GP (NHL) | Last Contract AAV: $1,000,000 | Next Contract Expectations: 2 x $1,500,000

Known as “Griz”, this player has been serviceable on a struggling Chicago team. He previously excelled in Boston and Pittsburgh, and at 31, there’s belief he can return to form, offering a more affordable alternative to Girard’s offensive capabilities.

John Klingberg – A Potential “Prove-It” Deal

Age ’25-26: 33 | WAR ’25-26: 2% | On-Ice xG Diff: 7.5 | Experience: 13 GP (AHL), 685 GP (NHL) | Last Contract AAV: $4,000,000 | Next Contract Expectations: 2 x $3,250,000

Klingberg, a right-handed defenseman, might seek a “prove-it” deal after a strong period with the Dallas Stars. Despite recent injuries and playing on a struggling Sharks team, his underlying metrics, particularly his on-ice xG Diff, suggest he still possesses value.

Lauzon – A Versatile Option

Age ’25-26: 28 | WAR ’25-26: 50% | On-Ice xG Diff: -5.3 | Experience: 126 GP (AHL), 359 GP (NHL) | Last Contract AAV: $2,000,000 | Next Contract Expectations: 4 x $2,750,000

With the salary cap rising, Lauzon is poised to earn more on his next contract. He’s a remarkably versatile player, capable of contributing in various aspects of the game, making him a valuable addition to the Avalanche’s roster.

Reilly – A Bounce-Back Candidate

Age ’25-26: 32 | WAR ’25-26: 65% | On-Ice xG Diff: 4.6 | Experience: 139 GP (AHL), 447 GP (NHL) | Last Contract AAV: $1,100,000 | Next Contract Expectations: 1 x $1,500,000

Reilly, another former Boston Bruin, has seen his stock decline but has played well despite limited ice time with the Carolina Hurricanes. He could be a bargain version of Girard, benefiting from less intense minutes in Denver.

The Strategic Imperative

Ultimately, the Avalanche must weigh the potential benefits of retaining Girard against the opportunity to acquire a more cost-effective replacement. Trading Girard while he still has term remaining on his contract could yield valuable assets, allowing the team to address other needs. The decision won’t be easy, but a proactive approach is essential for maintaining the Avalanche’s competitive edge.

Sources: NHL.com, Hockey Reference, Spotrac