除夕 (Chuxi) Weather Forecast: Taiwan’s Lunar New Year Outlook
As Taiwan prepares for the joyous celebrations of the Lunar New Year, understanding the weather forecast is crucial for planning both indoor and outdoor activities. This report provides a detailed look at the weather conditions expected during 除夕 (Chuxi – Lunar New Year’s Eve) and the subsequent days, including 初一 (first day of Lunar New Year) through to the start of work (开工日 – Kai Gong Ri).
Recent Temperature Observations (February 14th)
Yesterday, February 14th, saw maximum temperatures across Taiwan ranging from 29 to 32 degrees Celsius:
- Northern Taiwan (Xinbei, Xindian District): 30.0°C
- Central Taiwan (Chiayi, Zhukixiang Township): 31.1°C
- Southern Taiwan (Tainan, Yujing District): 32.1°C
- Eastern Taiwan (Taitung, Binan Township): 29.1°C
Current Conditions (February 15th)
This morning, February 15th, observations indicate clear skies across Taiwan with dense fog reported in Mazu. While strong ‘radiative cooling’ occurred overnight, warming air currents have led to a rise in minimum temperatures compared to yesterday morning. The lowest temperatures recorded across the plains this morning were approximately 13-14°C:
- Northern Taiwan (Keelung, Qidu District): 13.5°C
- Central Taiwan (Nantou, Zhongliao Township): 13.7°C
- Southern Taiwan (Tainan, Nansi District): 13.9°C
- Eastern Taiwan (Hualien, Fenglin Township): 12.7°C
Today’s Forecast (February 15th)
The latest ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) model simulations predict sunny and stable conditions across Taiwan today, with temperatures reaching around 30°C. However, significant temperature differences between day and night are expected due to radiative cooling. Fog is likely to form in Kinmen, Matsu, and western Taiwan during the early morning hours. Temperature ranges for today are:
- Northern Taiwan: 14-30°C
- Central Taiwan: 14-31°C
- Southern Taiwan: 14-32°C
- Eastern Taiwan: 13-29°C
除夕 (Chuxi – February 16th) and Beyond
Looking ahead to 除夕 (February 16th), cloud cover is expected to increase in northern Taiwan during the morning. From the afternoon onwards, a northeasterly wind will move south, bringing localized, brief showers to the north and east. Northern Taiwan will become wetter and cooler. Other regions will experience partly cloudy skies with minimal impact.
初一 & 初二 (February 17th & 18th): The northeasterly wind will continue to influence the weather, with a chance of localized showers in areas north of Taoyuan and in the east. Northern Taiwan will remain cool to slightly chilly. Central and southern Taiwan will enjoy partly cloudy skies with comfortable daytime temperatures and cooler evenings. By the afternoon of 初二 (February 18th), moisture levels will decrease, and rainfall in the north will gradually subside.
年初三 (February 19th): The monsoon will weaken, and temperatures will rise. Cloud cover will dissipate in the north, and the central and south will be sunny. There’s a slight chance of localized showers in the east.
初四 to 开工日 (February 20th – 23rd): The weather will transition to easterly and then southeasterly winds, bringing clear and stable conditions across Taiwan. Eastern Taiwan may experience occasional localized showers. Daytime temperatures will be comfortable and gradually increase to warm, while evenings will remain relatively cool due to radiative cooling. The likelihood of fog forming in western Taiwan, Kinmen, and Matsu will increase daily. The forecast for 开工日 (February 23rd) remains somewhat uncertain, with different models showing varying scenarios (see image below). Continued monitoring is advised.
Image: Comparison of ECMWF (left) and GFS (right) models for February 23rd.
Stay tuned for further updates as we approach the Lunar New Year! You can find more detailed information from reliable sources like the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan.
