Kentucky Derby 2026: Prospects Heating Up and Cooling Down – February Update

The road to the 2026 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve is taking shape, and February’s races have provided valuable insights into which horses are gaining momentum and which are facing challenges. This report offers a capsule look at three horses whose Derby prospects are looking brighter, and three whose chances have diminished. We’ll focus on the changes since our last update on January 21st, analyzing recent performances and assessing their potential for success at Churchill Downs.

Heating Up

1. Silent Tactic

   Over the past two weeks, Silent Tactic has emerged as a standout performer on the Derby trail. His impressive victory in the $1 million Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on February 6th was a significant step forward. Finishing at 12-1 odds, the colt demonstrated a remarkable improvement in his fourth career start and second attempt on dirt. Previously, Silent Tactic showed promise on the all-weather surface at Woodbine, winning his debut and placing in the Grade 3 bet365 Grey Stakes. Despite a second-place finish in the Smarty Jones Stakes, he overcame a challenging post position and a moderate pace to secure a 3 ¼-length victory in the Southwest. His closing times – a final quarter-mile in :24.56 and a final furlong in :12.08 – were particularly noteworthy, earning him a career-best 88 Beyer Speed Figure and a 103 Equibase Speed Figure. With a pedigree that suggests he can handle longer distances, and under the guidance of Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse, Silent Tactic is a horse to watch.

2. Renegade

   Renegade currently appears to have the strongest potential to win the Kentucky Derby. His dominant performance in the $210,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes on February 7th, where he was the 6-5 favorite, was no surprise given his previous races, including a disputed disqualification loss to Paladin and a second-place finish in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes. He showcased impressive progression, earning a 92 Beyer Speed Figure and a 100 Equibase Speed Figure, finishing with a sizzling final quarter-mile in :24.30. Trainer Todd Pletcher’s expertise further enhances Renegade’s prospects, as his breeding suggests he’ll excel at the 1 ¼-mile distance of the Derby. Learn more about Renegade’s profile.

3. Plutarch

   After a shift to turf for his final two starts as a 2-year-old, Plutarch returned to dirt with a career-best performance in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes on February 7th at Santa Anita Park. He pressed the pace set by Intrepido, the American Pharoah Stakes winner, and ultimately edged away to win by three-quarters of a length. This victory demonstrated maturity and determination, earning him a 90 Beyer Speed Figure. Trained by Bob Baffert, Plutarch is showing the potential to emerge as a serious contender.

Also Eligible

Nearly, winner of the Holy Bull Stakes, and Talk to Me Jimmy, victor of the Withers Stakes, are also showing promise. However, their finishing times raise some questions about their ability to handle stronger competition. Emerging Market’s impressive debut win at Tampa Bay Downs, earning a 96 Beyer Speed Figure, is also noteworthy. Additionally, Top Level and Easterly, both maiden winners, have demonstrated potential and are worth monitoring.

Cooling Down

1. Strategic Risk

   While Silent Tactic’s victory was a surprise, Strategic Risk’s 10th-place finish in the $1 million Southwest Stakes was a disappointment. After winning the FTBOA Florida Sire In Reality Stakes and the $250,000 Smarty Jones Stakes, his performance in the Southwest, finishing 10 ½ lengths behind Silent Tactic, raised concerns. Trainer Mark Casse speculated that inclement weather and an interrupted training routine may have impacted his performance, but a return in the Rebel Stakes will be crucial to assess his true form.

2. Incredibolt

   Entering the Holy Bull Stakes, Incredibolt was considered a strong contender, but he finished last of six, beaten by 25 ¼ lengths. Despite previous victories, including a two-length win at Churchill Downs and a 1 ¾-length score in the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes, his performance in the Holy Bull was a setback. While it’s important to remember that progress isn’t always linear, Incredibolt needs to demonstrate improvement to remain a serious Derby prospect.

3. Desert Gate

   Desert Gate, trained by Bob Baffert, returned from a four-month layoff to compete in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, but was outshined by stablemate Plutarch. Finishing fourth, beaten by four lengths, was a disappointing result for the Best Pal Stakes winner and runner-up in both the Del Mar Futurity and American Pharoah Stakes. While the layoff may have contributed to his performance, his inability to consistently compete at a high level raises concerns about his potential to challenge the top contenders.

The injury to reigning champion 2-year-old male Ted Noffey is a significant development, removing a major contender from the Derby trail.

Check out the 2026 Risen Star Stakes Cheat Sheet for more insights.